property_divergence is retracted due to critically low effective sample sizes (1.3–10) after autocorrelation correction, invalidating its z-test foundation. AUDUSD=X shows the largest z-score move at −1.87, but all major currency z-scores remain modest in magnitude. taylor_rule's decile 10 (Fed too loose at h=120) emerges as the most robust Phase 65 signal with n_eff=69.4, pending out-of-sample validation.
SIGNAL STATUSproperty_divergenceretracted — Apparent significance built on n_eff as low as 1.3-10 (far too small for a valid z-test) after lag-1 autocorrelation correction -- the...
Z-SCOREAUDUSD=Xz=-1.87
Z-SCORERUB=Xz=-1.43
Z-SCOREPBoC_USDCNYz=-1.43
Z-SCORENOKUSD=Xz=-1.40
Z-SCOREIDR=Xz=-1.28
SIGNAL STATUScli_breadthpending_oos — Decile 10 survives nominal significance with N_eff at 3 of 4 horizons (n_eff 100-266, healthier than property_divergence) but does not...
SIGNAL STATUStaylor_rulepending_oos — Best-behaved of the three Phase 65 signals so far: decile 10 (h=120, 'Fed too loose relative to the rule') has n_eff=69.4 (healthier than...
0 contradictions activeUSDJPY z -0.0σGold z -2.3σUS10Y z +1.5σUSDMYR z -0.5σHonesty: 1147B / 1532T / 3200F of 7495Phase 65: cli breadth ~ · property divergence · taylor rule ~0 contradictions
PROGRAMME EFFICACY
(forward 21-day outcomes, non-overlapping windows, all history)
Do the timing-array readings predict the future? AUC>0.5 ranks events better than chance;
skill (Brier Skill Score)>0 beats the base rate as a probability. Source: verify_efficacy.py.
Prediction
n
Discrimination
Skill
Verdict
5yr trend
Direction bias
26,473
hit 51.0%
+1.0pp vs 50%
beats coin-flip: yes
▼ weakening
Panic prob
40,528
AUC 0.58
skill -0.63
ranks risk, but over-forecasts
▲ improving
Turn prob
40,392
AUC 0.51
skill -0.25
~random
▲ improving
Commodities drove today's cross-asset volatility; equities and rates followed. Gold fell 4.08% to 4,148.50 (z=-2.25, a 2-sigma breach), while the ag complex fractured: lean hogs crashed 13.28% to 68.50 (z=-7.06, 3-sigma), soybean meal down 4.07% to 359 (z=-3.13, 3-sigma), but sugar and cotton rallied +5.94% to 18.57 (z=+3.57) and +4.47% to 82.52 (z=+3.13) respectively. Steel (HRC) spiked 6.57% to 1,321 (z=+8.20, 3-sigma). WTI spot surged 14.14 to 99.37 (z=+4.21, 3-sigma), though headline WTI crude posted only +0.95% to 93.29—discrepancy suggests spot/futures volatility. Equity selling was muted: S&P 500 off 0.77% at 7,683.69 (z=-1.02), a 1-sigma move. VIX rose 7.76% to 16.07 (z=+1.01) on the commodity shock, while US 10Y yield climbed 6bps to 5.24% (z=+1.07) and DXY gained 0.23 to 101.20 (z=+0.65). Bitcoin down 1.14% to 83,502.61; EMB down 0.92% to 91.34 (z=-2.51). The pattern: commodity deflation risk (gold, hogs) colliding with energy inflation (WTI, sugar supply concerns) and dollar firmness, but equity repricing is shallow—no clear news driver for the commodity divergence in provided headlines; tanker stock strength cited, not underlying energy moves.
Core PCE Price Index m/m tonight12:30 UTC
Regime: 13% confidence
OVERVIEW
RATES & FX
CREDIT
LIQUIDITY
COMMODITIES
EM STRESS
CENTRAL BANKS
GEOPOLITICS
REGIME
Reflation
Confidence 13% · 2nd: Inflation Shock 26%
Week 1 of current run (fresh — verify) · typical run 3w · classifier flips 27% of weeks
Resolution in past analogue periods came through Fed pivots or credit-spread widening. Engine reports raw similarity only; no forward forecast.
GEOPOLITICAL SIGNAL · GDELT + FOMC
TONE Z (252d)
-0.0σ
CONFLICT Z (252d)
+0.3σ
Spikes flagged in last 30d: 10
RECENT EXTREMES
2026-05-29protest share+3.1σ
2026-05-28protest share+4.3σ
2026-05-25conflict share+4.1σ
UPCOMING FOMC
FOMC2028-01-25
FOMC × GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
FOMC DATE
TONE Z
CONFLICT Z
STRESS
2015-07-08
-3.2σ
+2.9σ
+6.02
2015-09-16
-1.4σ
+4.4σ
+5.84
2016-01-06
-1.8σ
+3.3σ
+5.17
2014-01-28
-1.8σ
+3.1σ
+4.89
2024-01-03
-2.2σ
+2.3σ
+4.54
2023-10-11
-2.4σ
+2.1σ
+4.50
2022-05-25
-1.1σ
+3.1σ
+4.16
18/196 (9%) of past FOMC meetings happened during stressed regimes (combined z > 2).
Lifetime mean stress: -0.59σ.
Top entries are historical context for the upcoming Fed meeting — what tape did the committee walk into when stress looked like today's.