ASX 200 (^AXJO)

Composite signal at decile 4/10 (NEUTRAL) as of 2026-06-12 → calibrated P(8%+ drawdown within 120 trading days) = 7% (base rate 10%)

composite hit decile 9-10 (high warning) on 910 days; of those, 242 (27%) preceded a real 8%+ drawdown over the next 120 days · base rate 10.2%