Composite signal at decile 5/10 (NEUTRAL) as of 2026-06-12 → calibrated P(8%+ drawdown within 120 trading days) = 46% (base rate 38%) — WARNING: CI lower bound exceeds the base rate.
Price & technical overlays
Track record
composite hit decile 9-10 (high warning) on 378 days; of those, 245 (65%) preceded a real 8%+ drawdown over the next 120 days · base rate 37.9%