S&P 500 (^GSPC)

Composite signal at decile 4/10 (NEUTRAL) as of 2026-06-12 → calibrated P(8%+ drawdown within 120 trading days) = 1% (base rate 7%)

composite hit decile 9-10 (high warning) on 808 days; of those, 198 (25%) preceded a real 8%+ drawdown over the next 120 days · base rate 7.3%