Stoxx Europe 600

Composite signal at decile 5/10 (NEUTRAL) as of 2026-06-12 → calibrated P(8%+ drawdown within 120 trading days) = 2% (base rate 11%)

composite hit decile 9-10 (high warning) on 907 days; of those, 328 (36%) preceded a real 8%+ drawdown over the next 120 days · base rate 11.1%