Composite signal at decile 10/10 (ELEVATED) as of 2026-06-12 → calibrated P(8%+ drawdown within 120 trading days) = 7% (base rate 1%) — WARNING: CI lower bound exceeds the base rate.
Price & technical overlays
Track record
composite hit decile 9-10 (high warning) on 843 days; of those, 31 (4%) preceded a real 8%+ drawdown over the next 120 days · base rate 0.8%